In September of 2015, the Great Plains Institute invited 40 energy thought leaders and innovators to participate in a novel gathering to crowdsource their collective wisdom on the arc of the energy system over the next 5 to 20 years. To describe this gathering, we borrowed the term “Collaboratory,” which means “collaborative laboratory.” Think of it as an incubator for creativity and bold ideas among smart people who don’t often get together.
The year 2015 saw a growing, global momentum toward working together to realize an economically and environmentally sustainable energy system. To achieve such a system will require harnessing the speed and innovation that only the market, bound by the right policy framework, can deliver. And that will require fresh thinking: enter, the Collaboratory.
The Collaboratory was based on three fundamental premises:
- Society lacks informal settings in which smart people of good will but with different backgrounds, expertise, institutional interests, and worldviews can think strategically together about our common future;
- Despite the natural inclination to focus on where we disagree with one another, identifying areas of general agreement can accelerate progress, reduce transaction costs, and reveal where to focus our collective attention; and
- The Midwest has an opportunity for global energy leadership that not only taps our comparative advantages and draws talent, but also positions us to flourish economically long into the future.
Through a pre-event survey, a two and one-half hour in-person Collaboratory, and a post-event survey, we asked participants what they
think are certainties about the energy system in 20 years and what potential game changers within the next five years most excite them. The collective wisdom from this group of thought leaders resulted in a fascinating discussion and provided the basis of this report.
The following are the top headlines for the certainties and game changers crowdsourced from this group of thought leaders. For those in the energy sector, this list may not seem revolutionary. What is notable is the level of agreement that these are certainties and form the outline of a shared vision of our energy future.
Top Certainties About the U.S. Energy System in 20 Years
- Greater consumer choice and control
- More energy efficient
- More renewable energy
- Steady evolution toward zero carbon
- Less centralized and more integrated
- A modern grid will manage two-way flows of information and electricity
- The grid and utilities will remain essential, even as more consumers choose to produce some or all of their own power
- New, more customer-focused utility business models will emerge that offer products and services beyond just electricity
- Energy, water, and food production will become more inter- dependent as pressures on each increase
- New, cleaner energy technologies will emerge and change our notion of what is possible
Potential Game Changers
- A plunge in solar prices sufficient to make fossil fuel-generated electricity non-competitive
- Cost-effective energy storage
- Electric vehicles with range and refueling time comparable to conventional vehicles
- New business models that align utility financial incentives with achieving a sustainable, low-carbon energy system
The Great Plains Institute plans to identify “coalitions of the interested” to help move forward some of the priority ideas identified by participants and also aims to organize an annual thought leader gathering as part of its Energy Innovation Celebration, next scheduled for September 29, 2016.