This spring, the US Environmental Protection Agency marked a significant advancement toward achieving air quality improvements across the country by establishing the most stringent greenhouse gas regulations for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to date. The new standards address the critical need to reduce emissions from these vehicles. Despite making up just 10 percent of the vehicles on US roads, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are responsible for over a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions from all on-road vehicles.
Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles also emit health-harming air pollutants, which disproportionally harm Black, Indigenous, and people of color and low-income communities. Due to practices like redlining, these communities are often located near roads, highways, ports, and other commercial traffic hubs. The EPA’s calculations suggest that approximately 72 million individuals reside within 200 meters of a trucking route, exposing them to an excessive share of air pollution.
By reducing emissions from commercial trucks, we can significantly improve the air quality in these communities while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This post will describe the new standards, their market impacts, and how they complement other efforts in the private and public sectors.
The final rule for the EPA greenhouse gas emissions standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles
The final rule for the third phase of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles, which builds on EPA’s Heavy-Duty Phase 2 program from 2016 and maintains that program’s flexible structure, applies to new medium- and heavy-duty trucks for model years 2027 through 2032, encompassing delivery trucks, school and transit buses, and other heavy-duty vehicles. The finalized standards are projected to achieve the following:
- cut greenhouse gas emissions by up to 60 percent by 2032
- prevent the release of 1 billion metric tons of carbon pollution
- eliminate 55,000 tons of smog pollution over the program’s life
Like the EPA’s newly established clean car standards, which we covered previously, these clean truck regulations are centered on performance outcomes and are impartial to the technologies used to achieve them.
How will the new rules impact the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle market?
Manufacturers have the flexibility to achieve the final objectives by employing various technologies, ranging from electric drivetrains and hydrogen fuel cells to enhanced diesel engines, aerodynamic enhancements, and the use of lighter materials. Despite this, electrification will likely be the preferred choice for manufacturers and fleet operators. This is because the industry has made significant investments in electric trucks and buses, and these technologies have lower operational costs.
The EPA’s regulatory analysis forecasts that by the year 2032, zero-emission commercial vehicles, including battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, could represent anywhere from 25 to 60 percent of new sales in the vehicle market, varying by type of vehicle, as shown in figure 1.
The EPA classification for the type of vehicles covered by the regulations:
- Light heavy-duty vehicles: Class 2b–5 vehicles
- Medium heavy-duty vehicles: Class 6–7 vehicles
- Heavy heavy-duty vehicles: Class 8a–8b vehicles
Figure 1. Projected new vehicle technology penetration for the final greenhouse gas emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles
Note: The standards begin to apply to light heavy-duty and medium heavy-duty vocational vehicles fro00m model year 2027 onward, to heavy heavy-duty vocational vehicles from model year 2029 onward, to short-haul (day cab) tractor vehicles from model year 2028 onward, and to long-haul (sleeper cab) tractor vehicles from model year 2030 onward.
Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency, March 29, 2024, govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2024-04-22/pdf/2024-06809.pdf
The EPA projects that by the year 2055, when the program is fully executed, the cumulative social advantages—including health improvements and cost savings for fleets at fuel stations—will be an estimated $300 billion.
EPA standards complement private and public sector efforts
Medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicle manufacturers contribute to commercial truck emissions reductions by promoting more efficient and cleaner technologies, with many manufacturers already heavily invested in moving toward zero-emission vehicles. According to CALSTART’s Zero-Emission Technology Inventory, 64 electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers are currently active in the US.
Major private tractor fleets, including those of Amazon, UPS, PepsiCo, and Walmart, are significantly increasing their investments in electric trucks. The EPA’s definitive regulations will send a clear signal to other companies, encouraging them to integrate zero-emission vehicles into their fleets. As demand for these vehicles grows and substantial investments are made in the sector, zero-emission truck costs are expected to decrease further.
While long-haul trucking has been one of the most challenging sectors to electrify, an International Council on Clean Transportation study finds that sector will be conducive to electrification by 2030, with the total cost of ownership of electric long-haul trucks likely expected to be lower than that of their diesel counterparts.
States can also complement the EPA’s effort to transition to lower-emission heavy-duty vehicles by introducing incentive-based policies like a clean fuels policy. A clean fuels policy is a fuel-neutral program that achieves emission reductions in the transportation sector by supporting the deployment of lower-carbon fuels (including electricity, biofuels, hydrogen, and emerging technologies). The Great Plains Institute has been working with stakeholders across the Midwest as part of the Midwestern Clean Fuels Policy Initiative to design and implement clean fuels policies in the region since 2017.
In the meantime, as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the federal government has introduced commercial credits for zero-emission trucks and buses and related infrastructure, along with incentives for domestic production. The federal government has also offered incentives for charging infrastructure, port electrification, and school bus electrification under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. These programs complement the EPA’s final heavy-duty emissions rule and its mission to protect human health and the environment. Moreover, the transition to electric fleets will reduce fuel expenditures for fleet operators, enabling them to transfer these savings to consumers through lower-priced goods.
Check out our breakdown of the EPA’s emission standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles here: Unpacking the New EPA Light- and Medium-Duty Vehicle Emissions Rule – Great Plains Institute (betterenergy.org)
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