The Midcontinent Power Sector Collaborative, facilitated by the Great Plains Institute (GPI), is excited to announce the release of A Road Map to Decarbonization in the Midcontinent: Buildings, the third and final in a series of road maps. Buildings are a key sector to unlock on the road to decarbonization. This road map focuses on the opportunities to achieve decarbonization of buildings across the Midcontinent region by 2050.
The Midcontinent Power Sector Collaborative began studying potential pathways to midcentury decarbonization for the Midcontinent in 2017, and previously published road maps on electricity sector decarbonization in 2018 and transportation electrification in 2019.
This effort on buildings, which took place over the last two years, brought together environmental groups, automakers, charging companies, utilities, NGOs, and state officials to discuss challenges and opportunities to accelerate progress on building electrification. Through the Midcontinent Power Sector Collaborative, GPI facilitated a multi-year modeling effort across the three primary decarbonization road maps that analyzed the conditions and results for hundreds of scenarios.
Key takeaways:
- A suite of options will be necessary for the building sector in the Midcontinent region to both pursue and achieve decarbonization by midcentury.
- Solutions and opportunities vary by location, though broad adoption of heat pump technology, as well as reducing barriers to heat pump adoption, were found to have opportunity for high impact throughout the region.
- The buildings road map explores how end-use energy efficiency, electrification, renewable natural gas, and other very low- or zero-carbon fuels will play a role in the decarbonization of buildings and makes recommendations aimed at buildings decarbonization.
Reducing carbon emissions from buildings is crucial for any plan to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions economywide by midcentury, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested building decarbonization is necessary to limit global temperature increase to 1.5oC.
Decarbonization of buildings requires improving building efficiency and replacing conventional fuels currently used for space and water heating with very low- and zero-carbon electricity, renewable natural gas, or hydrogen.
Emissions sources in the buildings sector
Direct carbon emissions from fossil fuel use in buildings are primarily attributable to space and water heating. When indirect emissions from electricity generation are included, commercial and residential building energy consumption made up nearly one-third of US greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, as reported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their 2018 Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.
Figure 1 shows the proportion of total emissions that each sector contributed towards in 2018. However, the EPA’s historic greenhouse gas inventory data shows that emissions from buildings have been relatively constant since 2010, with no significant growth or reduction.
Figure 1. Proportion of 2018 US GHG emissions by sector (adapted from EPA 2018 Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks)
Analysis of key strategies for buildings decarbonization
This road map explores the roles of end-use energy efficiency, electrification, renewable natural gas, and other very low- or zero-carbon fuels in the decarbonization of buildings and makes recommendations to accelerate progress toward buildings decarbonization. However, the buildings road map does not arrive at a single prescription for decarbonizing buildings.
Rather, the analysis suggests a wide portfolio of options are available to Midcontinent buildings to achieve decarbonization, and that climate will play a key role in helping prioritize strategies across the region. The role of climate-specific solutions is particularly pertinent for building decarbonization because of the wide variation in climate zones across the Midcontinent region being evaluated. For example, the best way to provide decarbonized heating and cooling will not likely be the same in northern Minnesota and southern Louisiana. Figure 2 shows the geographic extent of the MISO electric grid territory within the Midcontinent region included in the road map analysis.
Figure 2. The MISO territory within the Midcontinent region included in the road map analysis (divided into regions: North, Central, and South)
The analysis did find that electrification can play a very significant role in the decarbonization of the building sector, especially as electricity generation increasingly relies on renewable or zero-carbon energy sources. But policy makers, building owners, and key stakeholders should be prepared to bring a mix of solutions to the decarbonization challenge.
The analysis also found that considerations like heat pump performance in various temperature conditions, technology type, rate of heat pump deployment, and the extent to which building owners face barriers to investment were the most influential policy levers to impact building sector emissions.
Other key findings:
- Electric heat pumps are already a promising strategy in the southern part of the Midcontinent region, while in the colder, northern region heat pumps face more challenges. Increasing heat pump adoption in the north will depend on advances in cold climate heat pump technology, viable options for decarbonized backup heating requirements, and reducing information and financial barriers.
Figure 3 shows the difference in existing heat pump penetration by Midcontinent region (northern and southern), indicating the varied opportunity for heat pump solutions in different climates.
Figure 3. Share of heating sources in northern and southern parts of Midcontinent, data published in 2018 for American Housing Survey (2015)
- In colder regions where heat pump performance is a challenge during the coldest days, alternatives such as renewable natural gas and hydrogen may prove important to achieving decarbonization goals. However, this is dependent upon their cost relative to natural gas.
- Building shell improvements can also play a role in helping curb energy demands, reducing building emissions, and improving building resilience. These will be helpful regardless of whether the decarbonization technology is electrification or lower-carbon fuels.
Analysis for the road map modeling found that there was a significant opportunity to increase investment in building shell improvements by lowering the hurdle rate—or degree of barriers associated with building shell improvements, which included variables like financing and educational resources for building owners—and that the results in increased adoption of building shell improvements were seen across all parts of the Midcontinent (north, central, and southern states). Figure 4 shows the share of additional households pursuing building shell improvements in each of those regions between 2020 and 2050.
Figure 4. Share of additional households adopting building shell improvements by Midcontinent region with a reduced hurdle rate
Collaborative recommendations for buildings decarbonization
Key recommendations to ensure the building sector can achieve decarbonization by midcentury included the following:
- New buildings should be built to maximize energy efficiency and enable electrification.
- For existing buildings, improvements in building shell efficiency should be encouraged wherever cost-effective, and energy efficiency programs and policies should be updated or developed to encourage heat pump retrofits.
- To increase the size of the heat pump market, states could support utility programs that target already cost-effective applications first.
- States should also recognize the need to account for the additional burden that is placed on the electric sector to decarbonize as it is asked to supply more carbon-free electricity to both the buildings and transportation sectors.
With the completion of the suite of road maps, the next step is the implementation of findings and recommendations, as well as synthesizing the findings from the three road maps into a cohesive vision. Stay tuned for more publications on tying the road maps together, and what that means for achieving decarbonization in the Midcontinent by 2050.
Learn more and hear what Collaborative participants are saying in the road map press release. Download the buildings road map and previous road maps on our website.
With questions or for more information, contact Kate Sullivan at [email protected].
About the Midcontinent Power Sector Collaborative (MPSC): The MPSC is a diverse collaboration of stakeholders in the energy sector which includes investor-owned utilities, merchant power companies, electric cooperatives, environmental groups, and state regulators. The Collaborative is currently creating a road map to decarbonization in the Midcontinent by analyzing opportunities in the areas of electricity, transportation, and building efficiency. The Collaborative’s work is focused on the Midcontinent region, an area in the footprint of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and stretches from Canada down the center of the United States to parts of Louisiana and Texas. The MPSC is convened and staffed by the Great Plains Institute.
About the Great Plains Institute (GPI): A nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, GPI is transforming the energy system to benefit the economy and environment. GPI combines a unique consensus-building approach, expert knowledge, research and analysis, and local action to find and implement lasting energy solutions. Our work strengthens communities and provides greater economic opportunity through creation of higher paying jobs, expansion of the nation’s industrial base, and greater domestic energy independence while eliminating carbon emissions.
