Land use issues surrounding solar energy and agriculture have the potential to create conflict and slow permitting processes—or they can be an opportunity for designing projects to deliver broad benefits for communities and achieve energy and climate goals. A number of states are adopting or considering policy initiatives to address perceived solar and agriculture conflicts, from statewide bans on using prime farmland for solar development to restrictions on local government regulation that prioritizes or protects local agriculture. New analysis by GPI shows the importance of understanding the local context for land use impacts of solar development.

By looking at the local context, we can identify places that could benefit most from decision-making tools and policy support to address local concerns and impacts while also enabling the development of a new clean energy system.

As demand for solar energy production continues to grow rapidly, local land use impacts become even more important to address. Solar can be co-located with other uses (referred to as agrivoltaics or ecovoltaics) to mitigate land use impacts, but the potential scale of development is still significant.

This post looks at our case study of Illinois to illustrate the importance of examining and addressing the local impacts of solar energy (and other land uses) on agriculture and builds on our previous analysis of the potential footprint of solar across the US.

Evaluating the potential economic impact of solar on the agricultural economy of communities

The potential conversion of agricultural lands to solar production is an area of growing concern for agricultural communities and state and national agricultural advocates. Much of the concern focuses on the economic impacts of lost agricultural production. Communities also express concerns about the inefficient use of prime soils uniquely suited to agriculture and impacts on the community character.

In a previous blog post on the land footprint of solar energy, GPI analyzed how solar development could impact agriculture on a county scale. We compared land in cultivation at the county level with an estimate of land required for existing and proposed solar development to assess the potential impact on agricultural economies. Our analysis showed that overall, the impact on the economic viability of agriculture was minimal at a county scale.

As described by Jessie Eidbo and Maggie Kristian in the original post, “in cases of agricultural land conversion, the economic risks of conversion are closely associated with the amount of land being converted [within a county or community].” The total solar land use (existing and proposed) is rarely greater than 1 percent of the agricultural lands “in any given county, posing a low development risk to local productive agricultural capacity.”

Yet we also found that the project site and local context matter—and that, in some cases, solar projects could significantly impact the agricultural economy.

Our more recent analysis, building off that original work, demonstrates the breadth of impact that decision makers need to consider in improving permitting and planning processes.

In our previous analysis, GPI compared land in cultivation at the county level with an estimate of land required for existing and proposed solar development to assess the potential impact on agricultural economies.

Local impacts vs. regional impacts: Illinois case study

Building on the original analysis, we looked at whether the regional or general case is sufficient for equitable policy making in transforming permitting processes or standards.

GPI examined the footprint of solar development in Illinois to better assess the local impacts on the agricultural economic base. Illinois has substantial agricultural assets and production that have protections under state law.

Acres of queued (proposed) and existing solar projects in Illinois as a percentage of cultivated lands by county

Heat map showing areas in Illinois with proposed or completed solar projects

Sources: Data from National Agricultural Statistics Service, US Department of Agriculture, 2017 Agricultural Census; PJM Services Request status website; MISO Interactive Queue website.

Illinois is also aggressively moving forward on decarbonizing its power sector, including providing policy and financial incentives for substantial increases in wind and solar energy production.

Using 2023 transmission queue data from the two independent system operators (ISOs) in Illinois as a proxy for the solar build-out over the next ten years, GPI assessed and updated the potential impact of solar development on county-level cultivation. The county-by-county results of the assessment are shown in the map above.

As with our previous national analysis, the land use requirements of a full market-based solar build-out are relatively modest or even insignificant for most counties in Illinois.

However, development tends to follow supporting infrastructure, and solar is no exception. In our analysis, we found that the proposed solar projects do tend to cluster near where existing transmission assets can enable development to access the wholesale market or near where power and energy off-takers (such as electric utilities or large industrial facilities) can access the proposed generation resources.

The density of the transmission grid (the number of potential interconnection points) and the density of energy use are both relatively high in northern Illinois, where population and economic development are growing. Consequently, this clustering effect occurs in the same counties where housing expansion and suburbanization are also strong. The American Farmland Trust identifies northern Illinois counties as most at risk in Illinois for conversion of farmland to low- or high-density housing.

The proposed solar developments in some northern Illinois counties could affect 3 percent of the agricultural lands in those counties, a level of development high enough to have market or economic base implications.

It’s important to note that relatively little analysis has been conducted on the point at which farmland conversions due to solar development in a county affect the market rents for agricultural land or the viability of farming. Based on anecdotal information, state and local policies setting limits on the conversion of agricultural lands for solar production have been between 2-5 percent of existing agricultural land.

The historic loss of farmland to non-solar development has already reduced the agricultural cultivation base in these areas. Continued expansion of both non-solar and solar development is likely to affect the viability of conventional agriculture in these areas. The effect of non-solar development on local land costs (rents or purchases) for agricultural uses is well-documented.  Current single-use solar land uses are likely to have a similar effect, as lease payments for solar facilities typically significantly exceed payments for agricultural uses.  Solar projects that integrate agricultural production or ecological benefits (the “co-benefits” approach to solar) can mitigate these impacts and are becoming more common in solar development, but were not considered in this analysis.

Insights and resources addressing agricultural land use impacts of solar

As has been noted by many others, the statewide general case for solar development poses very little risk to county-level economic activity (the effects of taking agricultural land out of production). However, our recent analysis of Illinois shows there are some instances where solar development market pressure can cumulatively affect the viability of local agriculture.

In areas where conflict between agriculture and development is greatest, local and state policy and permitting tools for addressing local agricultural land use priorities are most important and most effective at changing the perception of land use conflict. Policies to protect agricultural base should, however, focus on all forms of development rather than thinking of this as simply a solar and agriculture conflict.

We can draw on these insights as we consider both the statewide or regional need for dialogue around these potential land use tensions, siting decisions, and the potential local community impacts of solar development on the landscape and economy.

Local communities and state/national agricultural advocates are also concerned with the protection of agricultural natural resources (primarily soils) and the protection of rural character. These issues are real but need separate consideration from the issue of economic viability. GPI is leading a new effort with a team of national and Midwestern communities, solar developers, tribal nations, national labs, and ecosystem experts to create decision tools for both the soils concerns and the cultural (rural character) concerns (read our post about the effort, “PV-SuCCESS to Help Communities Harness Ecosystem Benefits of Solar Deployment”).

Our analysis on the footprint of solar was developed to help communities, regulators, and policy makers make informed decisions about developing our clean energy future, and it complements GPI’s work described in previous blog posts such as “Solar, with Benefits! (the Co-Benefits Approach to Solar Development).

GPI has also developed a suite of tools and best practices for communities as they consider solar development. We also offer technical assistance to communities in shaping solar development to meet community priorities and climate goals.

Resources and tools available include the following:

If you’re interested in working with us on these issues, please reach out to our team at [email protected].

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